The War Cycle

Column 441        February 9, 2024

Most events in the physical universe have cycles. Sun spots, weather, crop yields, civility, crime, animal migrations, the Earth’s temperature, and the list of cyclical phenomena are endless. So it is that just about everything involving people cycles including their wars.

Most older Americans have lived with various wars for so long they can actually wonder if war is more of a constant than a cyclical phenomena. According to David Vine, professor of political anthropology at the American University in Washington, D.C., the US had around 750 bases in at least 80 countries as of July 2021. With troops stationed in so many locations, it’s not too difficult to imagine that nearly on a daily basis, here and there, some of the troops will be involved in armed conflict.¹

But when we count the conflicts in terms of the number of countries and combatants, deaths, financial costs, and time spent fighting—cycles start to emerge. Of course, like many cycles, they are not perfectly symmetrical as often depicted on a graph. But there are periods of relative peace followed by fierce fighting that lends itself to forming cycles.

Wars are started for a variety of reasons that have repeated over and over again ever since humans developed.
●    Territorial ambitions have a long history for causing wars in prehistoric and even in modern times.
●    The desire for power, resources (hunting grounds, slaves, water), and geopolitical advantages have caused many conflicts.
●    Differences in religious, political, or philosophical ideologies have always kept tensions high and they frequently boil over into armed confrontations.
●    Even to this day resource scarcity is a catalyst for conflicts.

Wars reshape the structure of human existence in the world. Superpowers rise and fall, empires crumble, and international alliances shift. Greg Hunter, in his recent article titled “Trump is the Winter Coat,” discussed his interview with Charles Nenner, a renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert. The full Nenner interview lasts 40 minutes and is loaded with block busting points. I won’t list them all, but a few of them are certainly eyeopeners. For starters, he believes there is a huge war cycle that spans 120 years. In conjunction with that cycle he believes “We are simultaneously entering a huge financial down cycle that could easily turn into the Greatest Depression—ever.”²

The following are Charles Nenner quotes.

“You may remember we said 10 years ago that the biggest problem for the United States is going to be internal. There is a huge problem. Nobody knows what to do anymore, and people are afraid to speak up. . . . History says if you are not allowed to say certain things, then you stop thinking certain things. This is what is written in the book ‘1984.’ . . . . So, this is the end of what is going on in the United States. I think America is lost, but it is not a surprise. The Dutch ruled for 250 years, and then the Spanish, Portuguese came, and then the English came. Every big society ends, more or less, after 250 years, and now it’s the United States. . . .”

“The cycle is turning down, and people ask is there anything you can do? You cannot do anything about it. The question is what can you do? You have summer and then you have winter . . . if you know winter comes after summer, you can buy a coat. I have predicted all these war situations, and out of the blue they are here. There is nothing you can do about it.”

“Trump is going to be the winter coat. I think he can make it less bad. If this continues the way it is, then we are going downhill very fast. I think Trump is coming back.”

In closing Greg Hunter gave this summary of Nenner’s comments. “Nenner says interest rates are not going down until summer. He likes gold longer term, but it has not bottomed yet. The stock market is in for at least a 30% fall in the next few months, and the country will fall into a deep recession after the halfway point in 2024. Yes, it could turn into the greatest depression ever because there is astronomical debt. Nenner thinks the wild card is a multi-front war that has already started. Be warned as Nenner thinks it can spin out of control at any time. War gets much worse before it gets better. Nenner also is warning about a huge wave of terrorism coming to America with the wide-open southern border.”

Sean Brodrick presents a graph for the 53.5-year war cycle on the Weiss Ratings website in his article titled “The War Cycle Turns.” His graph is also the main image for this column. What worries him most about where we are in the cycle is quite interesting. “All three of these proven war cycles—the 53.5-year cycle, 17.7-year cycle and the 8.8-year cycle—are converging in a way that hasn’t happened in at least 50 years! And that means we can only expect things to get worse before they get better.”³

He goes on in his article explaining how to possibly profit by buying defense stocks in the decade to come. Of course, proper timing of the buy point is of paramount importance. But it’s an idea that might come in really handy if the market peels off 50% of its valuations this year.

As the wars break out, grow in ferocity, and with America being so financially vulnerable, market volatility will certainly pickup. America’s current administration seems so clueless in terms of keeping the peace that identifying hot spots is child’s play these days. The Mideast (Iran/Israel), Russia/Ukraine, North Korea/South Korea, and China/Taiwan are easily identifiable. Add into that mix the invasion of terrorist sleeper cells into the United States and there is no end in finding potential arenas for major conflicts that could all erupt at about the same time.

To your health.

Ted Slanker

Ted Slanker has been reporting on the fundamentals of nutritional research in publications, television and radio appearances, and at conferences since 1999. He condenses complex studies into the basics required for health and well-being. His eBook, The Real Diet of Man, is available online.

For additional reading:

1. Infographic: US Military Presence Around the World by Mohammed Hussein and Mohammed Haddad from Al Jazeera

2. Trump Will Be "The Winter Coat"— Charles Nenner Warns "The Cycle Is Turning Down Very Fast" by Greg Hunter from USAWatchdog.com

3. The War Cycle Turns by Sean Brodrick from Weiss Ratings